Evaluate Market Opportunities

How Fred evaluates the viability of any molecule-market combination using trade data, competitive intelligence, and regulatory analysis.

Prompt

Fred, evaluate the viability of Atorvastatin in Brazil. Score the opportunity across market size, competition, regulatory complexity, and supply chain readiness.

Sample Copilot Response

45s $0.28

Viability Assessment: Atorvastatin - Brazil

Overall Score: 8.2 / 10 - Strong opportunity with favorable market dynamics.

# Metric Breakdown

| Metric | Score | Analysis | |--------|-------|----------| | Market Size | 8.5 | Brazil imported $142M of Atorvastatin API in 2024, growing 23% YoY. Top cardiovascular molecule by import volume. | | Competition | 6.5 | 4 established suppliers, but top 2 control 67% of volume - room for supply diversification. | | Regulatory | 9.0 | ANVISA has clear generic/API pathway. 3 companies received approval in last 18 months. | | Supply Chain | 8.8 | Strong logistics infrastructure. Multiple port-of-entry options. Cold chain not required for API. |

# Key Findings

- **Import growth is accelerating**: $115M (2023) → $142M (2024), driven by cardiovascular disease prevalence

  • <strong>Supplier concentration risk:</strong> Eurofarma and Cristalia source 67% from just 2 Indian suppliers - buyers want alternatives
  • <strong>Regulatory momentum:</strong> ANVISA approved 3 new Atorvastatin registrations in 2024, indicating receptive environment

# Recommendation

Move to Evaluating stage. High market demand with moderate competition creates a viable entry opportunity. Recommend running Find Partners next to identify potential licensing or distribution partners in Brazil.

How Fred evaluates opportunities

Fred’s Evaluate Viability skill replaces weeks of manual market research with a structured, data-backed assessment. Instead of assembling spreadsheets from multiple sources, you give Fred a molecule and a market - and get a scored viability card in minutes.

What Fred analyzes

Fred pulls from PharmaDB’s 300M+ trade records to assess four key dimensions:

  • Market size: Import volumes, growth rates, and demand signals from trade data
  • Competition: Number of active suppliers, market concentration, and new entrants
  • Regulatory complexity: Approval pathway clarity, recent approvals, and timeline estimates
  • Supply chain readiness: Logistics infrastructure, transport requirements, and port access

How it fits your workflow

  1. Add an opportunity to your Portfolio Board - a molecule + market combination
  2. Fred runs Evaluate Viability - either on-demand or via scheduled daily scans
  3. Review the scorecard in DealFlow - approve to move the opportunity to the Evaluating stage, or dismiss
  4. Chain to the next skill - once approved, Fred can automatically run Find Partners

Why this matters

Traditional opportunity evaluation takes BD teams 2-4 weeks per molecule-market combination. Fred does it in minutes, with consistent methodology, backed by real trade data instead of industry reports and gut feel.

Perfect for: BD leads evaluating pipeline expansion, Corp Dev teams screening in-licensing opportunities, and Commercial teams assessing market entry viability.