Surface every API lane that has collapsed more than 50% year on year. Catch regulatory blocks and programme exits before they hit your sourcing book.
The warehouse flags twelve cold corridors in 2024 with year-on-year value drops above 50%. Hydrogen IN to RU collapsed 98.7%, dolutegravir IN to KE down 75.4%, acetaminophen IN to US down 93.8%. Valsartan IN to SA is the portfolio-relevant one: dropped 77.8% on a $3M baseline. Each collapse needs a root cause: regulatory block, programme exit, competitor entry, or pricing reset. The feed below surfaces the most recent twelve events with the YoY shape.
Upload or define your sourced molecules. Each (molecule, origin, destination) triple becomes a tracked lane.
Each weekly refresh compares latest-year value to prior-year baseline per lane. Lanes that collapse more than 50% surface as alerts.
Citation-anchored brief with the YoY shape, the shipment-count delta, and a root-cause hypothesis (regulatory, programme, competitor, pricing).
Lanes that lose more than half their value year on year fire automatically. Tune the threshold tighter (-30%) for an early-warning posture; looser for a critical-disruption-only view.
The AI agent matches the collapse against compliance events, regulatory filings, and known programme exits. Each alert carries a hypothesis rather than just a number.
A value drop with shipment count holding implies a pricing reset. A value drop with shipment count collapsing implies a structural exit. Different playbooks.
Lanes with a 2+ sigma shipment-count drop surface before the value collapse completes. Four to six weeks of lead time on most disruptions.
A real chat thread in PharmaDB. Type a question, the AI agent runs the tools, the answer lands as a saveable note.
pharmagraph_query Twelve plants exporting on currently-collapsing lanes · inspection class shows the regulatory state at the plant linked to the cold corridor.
The cold-corridor feed is the disruption-detection feed layered on top of the trade view. PharmaDB scans every lane each week, flags any 50%+ YoY collapse, and surfaces the alerts with root-cause hypotheses. The view is molecule_country_flow; the join is to compliance_events for the regulatory cross-check.
A (molecule, origin country, destination country) triple where the latest-year USD value is less than 50% of the prior year, on a baseline of at least $2M. The threshold and baseline are both tunable.
Cold corridors are the lagging signal: the lane has already collapsed. The z-score early-warning index is the leading signal: the lane's shipment count has dropped enough to suggest a collapse is coming. Run both as a paired alert system.
Four categories: regulatory block (import alert, registration lapse), programme change (Global Fund shifts a contract, MoH retenders), competitor entry (a new origin captures share), and pricing reset (the lane keeps shipping but at lower USD).
Value dropped from $3.05M in 2023 to $0.68M in 2024, with shipment count from 30 to 9. The shape implies a structural reduction rather than a one-off shipment timing issue. The local-market team's registration and tender intel fills in the why.
Trade aggregates refresh weekly. Cold-corridor detection recomputes on every refresh. Alerts fire on detection. The catalog row carries the last-computed timestamp surfaced on every result page.
Yes. Procurement_flows lanes are scanned with the same logic. Institutional collapses often indicate a tender re-award rather than a true disruption, but the alert still fires for the buyer to investigate.
Bring the molecule, the lane, or the supplier you're sourcing this week. The AI agent runs it on PharmaDB in 30 minutes. You keep the brief.