PharmaDB
Use case · Lane Concentration & Dual-Source · Sole-Source Risk Audit v.04.2026 · refreshed weekly
Use cases Lane Concentration & Dual-Source Sole-Source Risk Audit
Lane Concentration & Dual-Source Buyer view Data · trade flowsData · FDA Type II DMF register Live

Sole-Source Risk Audit

Audit a sourcing lane for sole-source exposure. HHI, top-3 share, distinct manufacturers, and the dual-source playbook trigger built in.

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Example output · tofacitinib, India to US, 2024
0.94 Lane HHI · 0 to 1 scale, last full year Near-monopoly
0 0.25 0.40 0.60 1.0
Apixaban → US (moderate) 0.36
Mesalamine → US (concentrated) 0.85
Tofacitinib → US (near-monopoly) 0.94
This lane 0.94
0.00 – 0.25
Competitive · no action
0.25 – 0.40
Monitored · quarterly review
0.40 – 0.60
Concentrated · qualify second source
0.60 – 1.00
Near-monopoly · black-swan exposure
Lane HHI
0.94
↑ near-monopoly
Top-3 share
99.6%
essentially one cohort
Active exporters
5
tight cohort
Lane value
$1.97M
small but vital
30 seconds

How it works

molecule losartan origin IN destination BR
01

Pick a lane.

Molecule + origin + destination. The AI agent pulls every exporter on the lane and aggregates lane value, shipment count, and per-exporter share.

0 HHI 0.42 1
computed · pre-joined · anonymised
02

The AI agent computes the sole-source metric.

HHI on the 0-to-1 scale, top-3 cumulative share, distinct manufacturer count. Any lane crossing 0.60 triggers the dual-source workflow with parameters pre-filled.

brief · cited
Lane concentration · structurally concentrated
HHI0.42
Top-3 share71%
Actionqualify second source
03

Save the audit brief.

Citation-anchored brief with the headline KPIs, exporter cohort, time series, and a chip showing the dual-source recommendation.

Why a buyer runs it

Catch the lanes where one disruption is total disruption.

Concentration above lane HHI.

Lane concentration risk is the moderate-band metric. Sole-source audit is the high-band view, calibrated to the 0.60 to 1.0 range where single-supplier exposure is the dominant risk.

Auto-trigger dual-source.

HHI above 0.60 for two consecutive quarters triggers the dual-source candidate workflow. The audit and the remedy are connected at the schema layer.

Time series, not snapshot.

A lane that was competitive 18 months ago and is now near-monopoly is the worst case. Time series catches the deterioration before the buyer feels it.

Weekly refresh.

Trade aggregates refresh weekly. HHI recomputes on every refresh; the catalog row carries an as-of timestamp.

What a real chat looks like

Type a lane. The AI agent returns the sole-source audit.

A real chat thread in PharmaDB. Type a question, the AI agent runs the tools, the answer lands as a saveable note.

Sole-source audit · tofacitinib → US
chat · saved 2 min ago
You
Audit the tofacitinib India to US lane for sole-source exposure. Surface HHI, top-3 share, distinct manufacturers, and trigger the dual-source workflow if HHI is above 0.40.
F
Running tool pharmagraph_query
lane_competitiveness · tofacitinib · IN → US · 2024 · 5 exporters
F
Tofacitinib on the India to US lane runs at HHI 0.94 for 2024, top-3 cumulative share 99.6 percent. Five active exporters share the lane, but the top three control essentially everything; the lane is near-monopoly. Any disruption to the leading exporter takes the lane offline. Recommend immediate dual-source qualification with the workflow pre-filled.
Lane HHI
0.94
Top-3 share
99.6%
Active exporters
5
Lane value
$1.97M
Cited lane_competitiveness 2024 molecule_country_flow 364 shipments fda_inspections last 3 cycles
Ask a follow-up... ⌘ ↵
Time-to-answer

Manual workflow vs. PharmaDB.

Manual workflow
Excel · email · syndicated reports
  1. 01 Pull trade declarations for the molecule-lane 4-6 hr
  2. 02 Aggregate per-exporter share 2-3 hr
  3. 03 Compute HHI and top-3 share 1-2 hr
  4. 04 Build trajectory time series 2 hr
  5. 05 Identify dual-source candidates 4-6 hr
Total cycle time 2-3 days per lane
PharmaDB
The AI agent · one query · cited
One query.
Pre-joined warehouse. Lane competitiveness is pre-aggregated; dual-source candidates derive from the same join. The AI agent returns the audit with citation in a single response.
Total cycle time Under a minute
Run it across your portfolio

Where sole-source audit fires, by lane.

Eighteen molecule-lanes · HHI on the 0-to-1 scale, 2024 latest year · lanes above 0.60 are auto-flagged.

Apixaban
IN → US
0.36
Dapagliflozin
IN → CA
0.23
Empagliflozin
IN → EG
0.31
Sacubitril
IN → AE
0.34
Sitagliptin
IN → TR
0.68
Ticagrelor
IN → NP
0.46
Linagliptin
IN → SA
0.94
Valsartan
IN → IQ
0.93
Telmisartan
IN → KH
0.83
Telmisartan
IN → DE
0.85
Olmesartan
IN → BR
0.95
Tofacitinib
IN → US
0.94
Palbociclib
IN → IQ
0.98
Lenalidomide
IN → ZA
0.99
Abiraterone
IN → CL
0.95
Enzalutamide
IN → TR
0.99
Ibrutinib
IN → TR
0.96
Tirzepatide
IN → US
0.89
Competitive Monitored Concentrated Near-monopoly

The sole-source audit is the high-end specialty view on lane concentration. PharmaDB flags lanes with HHI above 0.60, top-3 share above 90 percent, and a thin distinct-manufacturer cohort, then auto-triggers the dual-source workflow. The view rests on lane_competitiveness joined to molecule_country_flow. Refresh cadence is weekly.

FAQ

Frequently asked

How is 'sole-source' defined?+

Operationally, a lane with HHI above 0.60 on the 0-to-1 scale and top-3 cumulative share above 90 percent. The lane may have multiple named exporters but the supply is functionally controlled by a tight cohort, and disruption to the leader takes the lane offline.

Why distinguish sole-source from lane concentration?+

Lane concentration risk is the broader metric (0.25 to 1.0 range). Sole-source audit is the high-end specialty view, with auto-triggered dual-source workflow and a different remediation playbook. Buyers run lane concentration as a routine quarterly scan and sole-source as the deep-dive on the worst lanes.

What does the dual-source workflow do?+

It pre-fills the dual-source candidate discovery parameters with the molecule, destination, and the existing top exporter, and searches for qualifiable second sources on the same destination from a different origin or a different exporter on the same origin. The companion page is Dual Source Candidate Discovery.

Can a small-value lane still be sole-source?+

Yes, and that's often the worst-case. The tofacitinib India to US lane at $1.97M annual value is sole-source. Small lanes attract less buyer attention but disruption can still halt a finished-dose programme.

How does this interact with the all-Indian stack metric?+

A sole-source lane that is also Chinese-intermediate-dependent is two-stage sole-source: one disruption point at the API plant, another at the KSM plant. The combined view surfaces in the China intermediate dependency map.

How fresh is the data?+

Weekly. Trade aggregates refresh weekly. HHI and top-3 share recompute on every refresh; the catalog row carries an as-of timestamp on every result page.

Run your question.

Bring the molecule, the lane, or the supplier you're sourcing this week. The AI agent runs it on PharmaDB in 30 minutes. You keep the brief.

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