Compute monthly seasonal multipliers for any molecule. Pre-build inventory for the peak, hold less through the trough. Sized from declared trade.
Across the 1,336 molecules with month-level trade telemetry, March is the peak month at 1.22x the annual mean and January is the trough at 0.89x. The peak-to-trough spread is 1.37x at the global level. Molecule-specific curves run far wider; the global aggregate smooths most of that variance.
Type the molecule name. The AI agent reads the molecule_seasonality view, four years of monthly trade aggregates.
Mean monthly value across 2022 to 2025. Each month is normalised against the annual mean. Peak month, trough month, and peak-to-trough ratio surface as KPIs.
Citation-anchored brief with the 12-month curve, the recommended pre-build month, and a one-click handoff to the safety-stock workflow.
Each month is averaged across 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 to dampen single-year shocks. The shape is the structural demand pattern.
The AI agent names the month to start building inventory and the month to wind down. No more guessing the lead time for the peak.
Molecules with under 1.5x ratio are flat; over 3x is seasonal; over 5x is extreme and needs a buffer plan.
Peak-to-trough above 3x triggers the Strategic Safety Stock workflow with the multiplier and lead time pre-filled.
A real chat thread in PharmaDB. Type a question, the AI agent runs the tools, the answer lands as a saveable note.
pharmagraph_query Twelve molecules with non-trivial seasonal variance · peak month value as share of annual mean · 2022 to 2025 averages.
The seasonality curve is the first piece of demand shape any S&OP planner needs. PharmaDB averages four years of monthly trade aggregates and returns a 12-point multiplier curve in a single query. The view is molecule_seasonality; the source table is shipment-level trade declarations. Refresh cadence is monthly.
It is the ratio of that month's average trade value to the annual mean monthly value. A multiplier of 2.0 means that month carries twice the demand of an average month. A multiplier of 0.5 means half.
Four. PharmaDB averages monthly trade aggregates from 2022 through 2025 to smooth out single-year shocks like a pandemic procurement spike or a one-off tender win. The underlying view is molecule_seasonality.
Peak-to-trough ratio above 1.5x is the noise threshold. Above 3x is meaningfully seasonal and warrants S&OP attention. Above 5x is extreme and triggers the Strategic Safety Stock workflow automatically.
The pattern across blockbuster molecules typically traces back to Q4 tender cycles, hemisphere-specific procurement calendars, or local fiscal-year purchasing windows. The trade data shows the shape; the buyer's local-market knowledge fills in the why.
Trade aggregates refresh monthly. Each month, the trailing 12-month window adds the new month and drops the oldest. The catalog row carries the last-computed timestamp surfaced on every result page.
Yes. The same methodology applies to finished-dosage trade. FDF seasonality often shows a different shape than API because of pack-size and tender effects, so it pays to run both.
Bring the molecule, the lane, or the supplier you're sourcing this week. The AI agent runs it on PharmaDB in 30 minutes. You keep the brief.