PharmaDB
Use case · Portfolio & Sourcing Strategy · Molecule Market Sizing for Suppliers v.04.2026 · refreshed weekly
Use cases Portfolio & Sourcing Strategy Molecule Market Sizing for Suppliers
Portfolio & Sourcing Strategy Buyer view Molecule · losartan Data · trade flowsData · molecule catalog Live

Molecule Market Sizing for Suppliers

Size the destination market for an API you manufacture. Top destinations by USD, YoY growth, and how concentrated the incumbent exporter cohort is on each lane.

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Example output · losartan API, all origins, 2024 trade flows
$126.6M Losartan API · 2024 declared trade · 43 destinations
n=3,438 shipments · 43 destinations · last 24 months Authoritative

Losartan API moved $126.6M of declared trade in 2024 across 43 destinations. The US absorbs $61.6M (49% of the global pool) on a tight lane: 9 active exporters and the top-3 holding 83.3% share. Philippines and Iraq are the growth outliers, with Iraq surging from a near-zero base on rising domestic generics demand.

# DestinationRegion2024 USD valueYoY 2023→2024Top-3 exporter share
1 United States US · Tier-1 regulated 62 $M +42.0% YoY Top-3 83.3%
2 Philippines PH · Southeast Asia 15 $M +10.4% YoY Top-3 76.4%
3 Sri Lanka LK · South Asia 8 $M -1.5% YoY Top-3 95.5%
4 Chile CL · LatAm 8 $M +0.1% YoY Top-3 92.1%
5 South Africa ZA · Sub-Saharan 4 $M -3.5% YoY Top-3 88.7%
6 United Kingdom GB · EU-aligned 4 $M -3.8% YoY Top-3 95.3%
7 Myanmar MM · Southeast Asia 4 $M +21.8% YoY Top-3 94.6%
8 Iraq IQ · Middle East 2 $M +932% YoY Top-3 99.0%
Global 2024 value
$126.6M
Destinations
43
Active exporting origins
22
Top destination share
49% (US)
30 seconds

How it works

molecule losartan origin IN destination BR
01

Pick a molecule.

Type the INN of an API you make or are evaluating. The AI agent matches against the molecule catalog and pulls every declared destination.

0 HHI 0.42 1
computed · pre-joined · anonymised
02

The AI agent sizes each lane.

Total USD trade value per destination, YoY delta versus the prior year, and the active exporter cohort already serving the lane.

brief · cited
Lane concentration · structurally concentrated
HHI0.42
Top-3 share71%
Actionqualify second source
03

Save the sizing brief.

Citation-anchored leaderboard of destinations, ranked by value, with growth and entry-difficulty signals per row.

Why a supplier runs it

Where to put the next plant expansion, in one query.

Real revenue per destination.

Declared trade value sums every shipment that cleared on the lane. Not survey panels, not modelled forecasts.

Growth attached to size.

A $20M market growing 50% YoY is a different opportunity than a $100M market that flatlined. Both signals on one row.

Entry difficulty per lane.

Top-3 exporter share tells you which lanes are wide open and which already have an entrenched anchor exporter.

Weekly refresh.

Trade aggregates flow in weekly. Sizing recomputes; the catalog row carries the exact computation timestamp.

What a real chat looks like

Type a question. The AI agent returns the sizing leaderboard.

A real chat thread in PharmaDB. Type a question, the AI agent runs the tools, the answer lands as a saveable note.

Market sizing · losartan API · 2024
chat · saved 2 min ago
You
Show me the top destination markets for losartan API in 2024. Include USD value, YoY growth from 2023, and the current top-3 exporter share on each lane so I can see how competitive entry would be.
F
Running tool pharmagraph_query
molecule_country_flow ⋈ lane_competitiveness · losartan · 2024 vs 2023
F
Losartan API moved $126.6M of declared trade across 43 destinations in 2024. The US dominates at $61.6M and grew 42% YoY, but the lane is tight with the top-3 exporters holding 83%. The interesting growth pockets are Iraq (small base, +932%), Myanmar (+22%), and Tier-2 LatAm. The Philippines is the second-largest pool at $15.1M with a softer top-3 share of 76%.
Top losartan destinations · 2024 declared trade
1 United States · $61.6M +42% YoY · 9 exporters · top-3 83%
2 Philippines · $15.1M +10% YoY · 25 exporters · top-3 76%
3 Sri Lanka · $8.1M flat YoY · 6 exporters · top-3 96%
4 Chile · $8.0M flat YoY · top-3 92%
5 Myanmar · $3.7M +22% YoY · top-3 95%
6 Iraq · $1.9M +932% YoY · 5 exporters · top-3 99%
+37 more · open in PharmaDB
Cited molecule_country_flow 3,438 shipments lane_competitiveness 43 destinations molecules INN matched
Ask a follow-up... ⌘ ↵
Time-to-answer

Manual workflow vs. PharmaDB.

Manual workflow
Excel · email · syndicated reports
  1. 01 Pull two years of trade declarations for the molecule 1 day
  2. 02 Aggregate by destination 3-4 hr
  3. 03 Compute YoY deltas per destination 2 hr
  4. 04 Cross-check exporter cohort and share per lane 4-6 hr
  5. 05 Build the destination ranking deck 4 hr
Total cycle time 2-3 days per molecule
PharmaDB
The AI agent · one query · cited
One query.
Pre-joined warehouse. Trade flows, lane competitiveness, and YoY deltas are computed at the schema layer. The AI agent returns a ranked sizing brief with citations.
Total cycle time Under a minute
Run it across your product line

How big each API's destination market is.

Sample portfolio of cardiometabolic and CNS APIs · 2024 global declared trade value per molecule, in $M.

Atorvastatin deep
412 $M global 2024
Rosuvastatin deep
287 $M global 2024
Metformin deep
264 $M global 2024
Telmisartan adequate
198 $M global 2024
Amlodipine adequate
173 $M global 2024
Esomeprazole adequate
162 $M global 2024
Losartan adequate
127 $M global 2024
Pantoprazole adequate
118 $M global 2024
Clopidogrel adequate
102 $M global 2024
Sertraline adequate
96 $M global 2024
Venlafaxine adequate
78 $M global 2024
Mirtazapine adequate
64 $M global 2024
Pregabalin adequate
58 $M global 2024
Vortioxetine thin
41 $M global 2024
Buspirone thin
28 $M global 2024
Thin · < 50 suppliers · qualify additions Adequate · 50–249 Deep · 250+ · negotiable

Market sizing for API manufacturers is the first question before any plant decision: where does my molecule actually clear, in what value, growing how fast, and how packed is the lane already. PharmaDB joins declared trade flows to the molecule catalog and to lane-level competitiveness, so a supplier sees the size, the trend, and the entry difficulty in a single brief. The view is molecule_country_flow; the join is to lane_competitiveness and molecules. Refresh cadence is weekly.

FAQ

Frequently asked

How does PharmaDB size a destination market?+

Declared trade value is summed across every shipment that cleared into the destination for the matched molecule, scoped to the year. The compute runs on `molecule_country_flow`. Outliers above 100x the lane median USD/kg are flagged out of the volume math but retained in the audit log.

Why size the market on declared trade rather than IMS or panel data?+

Declared trade is the actual cargo that moved. It is the cleanest proxy for API demand because it is per-shipment, dated, and ties back to a buyer cohort. Panel data has fewer molecules and lags by quarters.

What does top-3 exporter share tell a supplier?+

It is the entry-difficulty signal. A lane where the top-3 exporters hold 95% has an entrenched anchor and is hard to displace. A lane where the top-3 hold 60% has room for a credible new entrant. Both signals show on the row.

Is FDF demand included or API only?+

This view is API-only. The molecule catalog tags shipments by form (API, FDF, intermediate). FDF demand sizing is the companion analysis under the formulator pages.

How fresh are the sizing numbers?+

Weekly. The trade warehouse refreshes every week and the sizing compute reruns on every refresh. The catalog row carries the exact computation timestamp.

Does this include destinations that are pure re-export hubs?+

Yes, with a flag. Re-export hubs (Singapore, Netherlands, UAE) are included so suppliers see the routing reality, but the AI agent surfaces a hub-tagged badge so the destination is not misread as an end-user market.

Run your question.

Bring the molecule, the lane, or the supplier you're sourcing this week. The AI agent runs it on PharmaDB in 30 minutes. You keep the brief.

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