Forecast destination-market demand using observed import flows. A trade-derived signal beats no-signal sales planning where downstream data is missing.
Observable global API trade grew from $6.35B in 2022 to $9.08B in 2025, a 43% lift across the catalog. The 2024 to 2025 YoY was +9.5% on 380,871 declared shipments. The trajectory is the planning input: project from the past three years' rate, anchor by destination market, sanity-check against the seasonality curve.
A single molecule into a destination market, or a portfolio across many destinations. The trade-derived signal works in either scope.
Three-year USD aggregate, two-year growth rate, and a naive momentum forecast for the next year. The forecast is directional; intervals fold in observed variance.
Citation-anchored brief with the trend, the forecast, and the implied market-build action. Handoff to the country-launch or BD workflow.
In markets without a POS or distributor feed, import trade is the only public demand signal. Three years of trade history is a clean directional proxy.
A 100%+ two-year USD growth is a market that is structurally moving. The AI agent ranks the top growth destinations across the molecule's import universe.
Trade-derived signals lead local sales by six to twelve months. The window is enough to size a country launch or a tender position.
Where institutional procurement flows are visible, the AI agent separates commercial from institutional demand. Different planning calls for different signals.
A real chat thread in PharmaDB. Type a question, the AI agent runs the tools, the answer lands as a saveable note.
pharmagraph_query Twelve pool destinations with at least $5M observable trade and a positive momentum signal · two-year growth normalised to 0 to 1.
The trade-derived forecasting view is the demand signal where no sales data exists. PharmaDB fits a three-year trend on per-destination import flows and returns a directional forecast with variance bands. The view is molecule_country_flow; the join is to countries for currency and region context.
The naive momentum approach holds out the latest year and back-tests against the prior two. Mean absolute percentage error sits in the 15 to 20% band across blockbuster molecules. Directional accuracy (gain vs decline) is over 80%.
For most emerging markets and many regulated markets, sales data is not available without a distributor licence or a third-party purchase. Trade data is observable, weekly-fresh, and at molecule-destination granularity.
No. The trade-derived signal needs at least 18 months of observed flows to fit a directional trend. For new launches, the institutional-procurement signal (UNICEF, MoH flows) is the better starting point.
USD value blends volume and price. A 20% USD growth with a 10% price drop implies 30% volume growth. Where the molecule has an API price benchmark, the AI agent surfaces the implied volume forecast alongside the USD forecast.
Yes. The same methodology applies to API and FDF imports. FDF imports often map more directly to local consumption; API imports add an intermediate processing step.
Trade aggregates refresh monthly. Forecasts recompute on every refresh. The catalog row carries the last-computed timestamp surfaced on every result page.
Bring the molecule, the lane, or the supplier you're sourcing this week. The AI agent runs it on PharmaDB in 30 minutes. You keep the brief.