Observe lane-level price drops alongside volume gains. The empirical elasticity proxy for any molecule-destination, computed from declared customs.
Sitagliptin India-into-Philippines is unit-elastic, with median falling from $1.82 to $0.85/kg and shipment count rising from 92 to 139 across 2023 to 2024. The implied elasticity coefficient is roughly -0.96; a 1% price drop returns close to 1% volume gain. The Myanmar lane is hyper-elastic at the same molecule (-5.1 coefficient): price fell 41% and volume rose 210%. Volume rebates on hyper-elastic lanes are decision-aligned; on inelastic lanes they are revenue leakage.
Single lane or a full portfolio scan. Default window is the latest full year vs the prior year.
Lane-level price change and shipment-count change are computed YoY. The ratio of the two is the implied elasticity coefficient; lanes are bucketed as inelastic (-0 to -0.5), unit-elastic (-0.5 to -1.5), or hyper-elastic (below -1.5).
Citation-anchored brief: the price change, the volume change, the implied coefficient, the classification, and the recommended posture for volume rebates and tender bids.
Same molecule shows different elasticity in different destinations. The Philippines is unit-elastic on sitagliptin; the EU markets are inelastic. The map is at the lane resolution, not the molecule average.
Customers ask for volume rebates. The elasticity classification answers whether the rebate returns the volume to make the math work. Elastic = grant; inelastic = decline.
Customs reports clearance count, not unit-level volume. The proxy holds for most molecules with stable pack-size; the brief surfaces a confidence chip when pack-size variation is high.
Trade aggregates refresh weekly. The elasticity surface reruns on every refresh; the brief carries the exact computation timestamp.
A real chat thread in PharmaDB. Type a question, the AI agent runs the tools, the answer lands as a saveable note.
pharmagraph_query Twelve lanes · 2023 to 2024 · India-origin · price drop with simultaneous volume gain.
The elasticity proxy is the volume rebate gatekeeper. PharmaDB pairs the YoY price change with the YoY shipment-count change per lane and surfaces the implied elasticity coefficient. The view is molecule_country_flow self-joined. Refresh cadence is weekly.
True price elasticity needs unit-level volume (kg, packs, doses). Customs reports clearance shipment count, which approximates volume when pack-sizes are stable. PharmaDB labels the output as an elasticity proxy and surfaces a confidence chip when pack-size variation across the lane is high.
Percent change in shipment count divided by percent change in median USD/kg. A coefficient of -1 means a 1% price drop returns a 1% volume gain (unit-elastic). Below -1 is elastic; between 0 and -1 is inelastic. Coefficients above 0 (price drop with volume drop) are flagged as confounded.
Multiple. Tender wins, new entrant arrivals, demand shocks. The brief surfaces the lane HHI delta and the entrant count alongside the elasticity number so the user can read whether the volume gain is from elasticity or from a structural shift.
Volume rebate decisions, tender bid pricing, and exit-vs-defend calls on eroding lanes. On elastic lanes, a price cut returns the volume to defend revenue. On inelastic lanes, the cut destroys margin without lifting volume.
PharmaDB output is a proxy derived from year-over-year trade aggregates; not a regression-controlled coefficient. It is the empirical signal a commercial team can act on without commissioning a study. Econometric studies add granularity; the proxy is the first-pass screen.
Trade aggregates refresh weekly. The elasticity proxy reruns on every refresh; the catalog row carries the exact timestamp.
Bring the molecule, the lane, or the supplier you're sourcing this week. The AI agent runs it on PharmaDB in 30 minutes. You keep the brief.