PharmaDB
Use case · Supplier Discovery & Qualification · Rising and Falling Supplier Signals v.04.2026 · refreshed weekly
Use cases Supplier Discovery & Qualification Rising and Falling Supplier Signals
Supplier Discovery & Qualification Buyer view Data · trade flowsData · global company catalog Live

Rising and Falling Supplier Signals

Spot suppliers gaining and losing share. YoY export growth, molecule footprint change, and destination expansion in one ranked view.

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Example output · 2025 customs trace, growth + momentum ranking
20 Suppliers with significant 2025 YoY shift · ±30% growth, ≥$5M exports
n=20 suppliers · trade warehouse Indicative

Twenty suppliers cross the ±30% YoY threshold in 2025 with material exports. Hetero Labs tops the rising cohort at +146% YoY ($1.27B), driven by 63 new molecules and 10 new destinations. Divis Laboratories follows at +138% on a more concentrated molecule expansion. The falling cohort is led by Suven Pharmaceuticals (-57%) and Optimus Drugs (-55%), signalling supply chain transitions or capacity reallocation.

# SupplierCountry2025 USDYoY changeSignal
1 Hetero Labs IN · Hyderabad 146 % YoY $1.27B · 2025 VAI
2 Divis Laboratories IN · Hyderabad 138 % YoY $164M · 2025 NAI
3 Harman Finochem IN · Aurangabad 250 % YoY $42M · 2025 NAI
4 ANUH Pharma IN · Thane 224 % YoY $23M · 2025 NAI
5 Indo Amines IN · Mumbai 154 % YoY $25M · 2025 VAI
6 Morepen Laboratories IN · Solan 145 % YoY $41M · 2025 VAI
7 Suven Pharmaceuticals IN · Hyderabad -57 % YoY $26M · 2025 VAI
8 Optimus Drugs IN · Hyderabad -55 % YoY $15M · 2025 VAI
Rising suppliers (+30% YoY)
13
Falling suppliers (-30% YoY)
7
Largest gain
+371% (Haldia)
Largest drop
-76% (AET)
30 seconds

How it works

molecule losartan origin IN destination BR
01

Pick a scope.

Portfolio-wide, molecule-specific, or geography-specific. The AI agent pulls the supplier cohort matching the filter.

0 HHI 0.42 1
computed · pre-joined · anonymised
02

The AI agent computes momentum.

YoY USD change, molecule-footprint delta, destination-expansion delta. Suppliers ranked by composite signal.

brief · cited
Lane concentration · structurally concentrated
HHI0.42
Top-3 share71%
Actionqualify second source
03

Save the momentum brief.

Citation-anchored brief with the rising and falling cohorts, with chips showing molecule expansion and destination expansion.

Why a buyer runs it

Catch supplier momentum before the RFQ window.

Rising signals new capacity.

A supplier growing 150% YoY with 60 new molecules has spare commercial bandwidth and active commercial ambition. Strong candidate for an immediate RFQ.

Falling signals risk.

A supplier in steep decline may exit a molecule, sell capacity, or face quality issues. The falling cohort is the watch list, not the buy list.

Three signals, one composite.

USD growth alone misses molecule and destination expansion. The composite captures whether a supplier is growing on the same lanes or expanding the footprint.

Weekly refresh.

Trade aggregates refresh weekly. Momentum recomputes on every refresh; the catalog row carries an as-of timestamp.

What a real chat looks like

Type a scope. The AI agent returns the momentum ranking.

A real chat thread in PharmaDB. Type a question, the AI agent runs the tools, the answer lands as a saveable note.

Supplier momentum · 2025
chat · saved 2 min ago
You
Rank suppliers by 2025 YoY growth signal. Surface the top 10 rising and top 10 falling suppliers with USD exports above $5M.
F
Running tool pharmagraph_query
company_trade_growth · 2025 · |YoY| >= 30% · USD >= $5M
F
Twenty suppliers crossed the ±30% YoY threshold in 2025 with material exports. The rising cohort is led by Hetero (+146%) and Divis (+138%), both expanding aggressively on molecule and destination dimensions. The falling cohort is led by Suven (-57%) and Optimus Drugs (-55%); both showing capacity reallocation or molecule exit signals. A buyer's 2026 RFQ pool reads differently when the momentum view is overlaid.
2025 supplier momentum · top movers
1 Hetero Labs · +146% YoY · $1.27B 63 new molecules · 10 new destinations · rising
2 Divis Laboratories · +138% YoY · $164M 22 new molecules · 14 new destinations · rising
3 Suven Pharmaceuticals · -57% YoY · $26M molecule footprint contracting · falling
+17 more · open in PharmaDB
Cited company_trade_growth 2025 movers company_trade_exports_by_molecule footprint company_trade_destinations destination delta
Ask a follow-up... ⌘ ↵
Time-to-answer

Manual workflow vs. PharmaDB.

Manual workflow
Excel · email · syndicated reports
  1. 01 Pull two years of trade aggregates 4-6 hr
  2. 02 Aggregate USD per supplier per year 2-3 hr
  3. 03 Compute YoY change at supplier level 1-2 hr
  4. 04 Cross-reference molecule and destination expansion 3-4 hr
  5. 05 Rank rising vs falling cohorts 2 hr
Total cycle time 1-2 days
PharmaDB
The AI agent · one query · cited
One query.
Pre-joined warehouse. Year-over-year change, molecule delta, and destination delta are pre-aggregated. The AI agent returns the ranking with citation in a single response.
Total cycle time Under a minute
Run it across your portfolio

Momentum cohort depth, per dimension.

2025 customs trace · count of suppliers crossing the ±30% YoY threshold by dimension.

Rising (>+100% YoY) adequate
9 movers
Rising (+30% to +100%) adequate
18 movers
Stable (±30%) deep
142 movers
Falling (-30% to -50%) adequate
11 movers
Falling (>-50%) adequate
7 movers
New molecule expansion >10 adequate
22 movers
New destination expansion >10 adequate
17 movers
Concentrated growth (USD up, molecules flat) adequate
14 movers
Diversified growth (USD up, molecules up) deep
25 movers
Indian suppliers rising deep
31 movers
Indian suppliers falling adequate
13 movers
Chinese suppliers in view adequate
6 movers
Specialty/peptide rising adequate
8 movers
Small-molecule rising adequate
19 movers
Multi-molecule fallers adequate
9 movers
Thin · < 5 suppliers · qualify additions Adequate · 5–24 Deep · 25+ · negotiable

Supplier momentum is the directional view on a fragmented base. PharmaDB ranks every supplier by USD growth, molecule-footprint expansion, and destination expansion, then surfaces the rising and falling cohorts in one ranked list. The view rests on company_trade_growth, company_trade_exports_by_molecule, and company_trade_destinations. Refresh cadence is weekly.

FAQ

Frequently asked

What's a 'significant' YoY change?+

Default is ±30% on USD exports for suppliers above $5M. Smaller suppliers move more in percentage terms; the absolute floor avoids noise. Buyers can re-cut the threshold on demand.

Why include destination and molecule deltas?+

USD growth alone can hide compositional change. A supplier may grow USD 50% on the same molecule into the same destinations (consolidation) or on new molecules into new geographies (expansion). The two patterns carry different implications for procurement.

Is the falling cohort always a risk signal?+

Not always. A supplier may be reallocating capacity to higher-margin molecules, or exiting a commoditising molecule deliberately. The falling cohort is the watch list, not the avoid list. Cross-reference with inspection trajectory and enforcement events.

How does this compare to the emerging supplier signal?+

Emerging suppliers are a sub-cohort: rising with clean inspections and active DMFs, the qualifiable new entrants. The momentum view is broader; it includes the full rising cohort plus the falling cohort plus diversified vs concentrated growth patterns.

Are non-pharma rows excluded?+

Yes by default. The trade feed includes some non-pharma exporters (chemicals, packaging) that PharmaDB filters out via the pharma-classification view. A buyer can opt into the unfiltered view for portfolio diversification work.

How fresh is the data?+

Weekly. Trade aggregates refresh weekly. The momentum view recomputes on every refresh; the catalog row carries an as-of timestamp on every result page.

Run your question.

Bring the molecule, the lane, or the supplier you're sourcing this week. The AI agent runs it on PharmaDB in 30 minutes. You keep the brief.

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